Analisis faktor penentu volume ekspor batubara Indonesia pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang periode 2015.8 s.d 2021.8

DETAIL KOLEKSI

Analisis faktor penentu volume ekspor batubara Indonesia pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang periode 2015.8 s.d 2021.8

Oleh : Ego Bagas Anugerah Pratama

Info Katalog

Nomor Panggil : 021001914004

Penerbit : FEB - Usakti

Kota Terbit : Jakarta

Tahun Terbit : 2022

Pembimbing 1 : Dini Hariyanti

Subyek : International trade;Export - Coal

Kata Kunci : Indonesian oal export volume, Indonesia coal production, reference coal price, real exchange rate, C

Status Posting : Published

Status : Lengkap

File Repositori

No.	Nama File	Hal.
1.	2022_TA_EP_021001914004_Halaman-Judul.pdf
2.	2022_TA_EP_021001914004_Lembar-Pengesahan.pdf
3.	2022_TA_EP_021001914004_Bab-1_Pendahuluan.pdf	15
4.	2022_TA_EP_021001914004_Bab-2_Tinjauan-Pustaka.pdf
5.	2022_TA_EP_021001914004_Bab-3_Metode-Penelitian.pdf	11
6.	2022_TA_EP_021001914004_Bab-4_Analisis-dan-Pembahasan.pdf	44
7.	2022_TA_EP_021001914004_Bab-5_Kesimpulan.pdf
8.	2022_TA_EP_021001914004_Daftar-Pustaka.pdf
9.	2022_TA_EP_021001914004_Lampiran.pdf	9

Abstrak
Abstract

P enelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh jangka pendek dan jangka panjang tingkat produksi batubara Indonesia, Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA), nilai tukar riil, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Manufaktur China, PMI Manufaktur Indonesia, harga bahan bakar nabati (BBN) terhadap volume ekspor batubara Indonesia. Penelitian menggunakan Metode Regresi Berganda dengan model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Data yang digunakan yakni data time series bulanan untuk periode Agustus 2015 s.d Agustus 2021.Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa dalam jangka pendek (1) variabel tingkat produksi batubara nasional signifikan berpengaruh positif terhadap volume ekspor batubara. (2) variabel nilai tukar riil signifikan berpengaruh negatif terhadap volume ekspor batubara. (3) variabel PMI manufaktur Indonesia tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap volume ekspor batubara. Sedangkan dalam jangka panjang menunjukan bahwa (1) tingkat produksi batubara signifikan berpengaruh positif terhadap volume ekspor batubara (2) harga batubara acuan signifikan berpengaruh positif terhadap volume ekspor batubara. (3) Variabel nilai tukar riil, PMI manufaktur Indonesia PMI manufaktur China serta harga BBN tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap volume ekspor batubara.

T he purpose of this research is to determine and analyze the short-term and long-term impact of Indonesian coal production levels, Reference Coal Prices (HBA), real exchange rates, China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Indonesian Manufacturing PMI, and biofuel prices (BBN) on Indonesian coal export volume. The Multiple Regression Method was utilized in the investigation, along with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The data utilized is a monthly time series from August 2015 through August 2021.The findings reveal that (1) the variable level of national coal production has a considerable positive impact on the amount of coal exports in the near run. (2) The real exchange rate variable has a considerable negative impact on coal export volume. (3) The Indonesian manufacturing PMI variable has no influence on coal export volume. In the long run, however, it appears that (1) the level of coal production has a considerable positive impact on the amount of coal exports. (2) The reference coal price has a considerable positive impact on coal export volume. (3) The actual exchange rate variable, the Indonesian manufacturing PMI, the Chinese manufacturing PMI, and the price of biofuel have no significant impact on coal export volume.